The Relegation Breakdown

By: chris | March 17th, 2008

Author: Jeremy (That’s not him….I think.)
Page: Cagliari

Jeremy gave a little bit of a relegation breakdown last week, for reasons which you can probably figure out, and offers up his take on the week’s action from those in danger in Serie A.

10 weeks to go and six Serie A teams are facing real relegation threats. Some seem to be handling it with positivity(Cagliari), while others don’t really want to talk about it(Empoli). One team(Parma) has brought in a new manager who is still a hero in Mallorca for saving what seemed like a hopeless relegation battle a couple of years ago. What matters most to these teams is not only where they lie in the standings, but their attitude and remaining schedule, with road wins almost impossible to come by. Lets look at each of them and see where we are this week.

Cagliari
21 points
odds of relegation: Still pretty certain.

Cagliari is still trying to overcome a dreaded first half which any Serie A fans knows about. They have played better in the second half winning their home games, but their downfall absent some upsets of the bigger clubs is their failure to win winnable road games against sorry teams like Siena and Catania. Failing to pick up points in those matches not only allowed those teams to ease relegation worries, but it also killed momentum from the prior week. With the toughest schedule remaining of all six relegation candidates(they still have to play Roma, Milan, Inter, Fiorentina, and Udinese), despite their solid play, it is really asking too much for them to make up six points and save the season.

Lurking out there is the three points that were taken away from them a few weeks ago by the Italian football federation. The club seems to think they will get the points back, but I wouldn’t count on it. Either way, a decision must be made soon in all fairness to the club. Add another three points and this team has a real shot.

Reggina
25 points
odds of relegation: dont assume it.

The past five weeks, Reggina, like Cagliari has played better and are a big reason why the bottom of the table has become tighter. This team has not been a pushover since it beat Juve five weeks ago. Its still too inconsistent, but it is not going down without a fight as evidenced by their 4-0 thrashing of Siena, the luckiest team in Serie A. Reggina has a very favorable schedule the rest of the way and if they can stay in the race, they could surprise and pull through with a 17th place finish. Like Cagliari, they are probably hoping the game in week 38 in Sardinia means something as that could be a great game for the final safe spot.

Empoli
25 poinst
odds of relegation: starting to look it might happen

This team is a real enigma. They shouldn’t be in the trouble they are in, but have lost their last four and the last time they won was five weeks ago when they beat Catania at home and everyone beats Catania at home. With upcoming games against Juve and Roma, they could be buried mentally before the last six weeks of the season which sees them face what some might say is the easiest remaining schedule. They could continue to look bad for the next few weeks, but when they need points, an easy schedule may allow them to jump back to safety. The key for this club is how they hold up mentally over the next couple of weeks. They could be in real trouble.

Parma
26 points
odds of relegation: with Cuper in charge, I wouldn’t bet on it.

Parma has been mediocre and cant seem to escape the relegation fight. They should be where Torino and Siena are right now but have lost some games they really should have won. They brought in Hector Cuper, to any Mallorca fan like myself a god in waiting, and he alone is worth 3-5 points in this battle. They have a schedule that does not allow for a run against a bunch of bottom level clubs so momentum will be hard to gain. If anyone can save them Cuper can, but he needs to get his players mentally right real fast or they will go into their last two weeks of the year needing wins against Fiorentina and Inter and that simply wont happen as those two teams will likely be facing must wins for Scudetto and Champions League positions. A road tie this week is just an example of the magic Cuper can work. A relegation team loses on the road, a 17th place team picks up a point. Watch them survive.

Livorno
27 points
odds of relegation: cant see it happening.

Livorno has no doubt underperformed of late, but with a remaining schedule that is as easy as any of the other relegation strugglers, combined with the issues that exist at the other clubs, they should stay up if they can win their home games. Their fans have to be disappointed that they are in this position, but when you draw against Parma at home when a win is a must, you have to be looked at as a team that could fall into the relegation zone. They should eek out survival, but they cant assume it at this point.

Catania
27 points
odds of relegation: i wouldn’t bet even money that they stay up.

Catania sucks. They are the worst team on the road but they showed guts with wins over Cagliari and see a very favorable schedule over the next eight weeks. If they can win their home games, they should be safe. If they lose these winnable home games to teams like Siena, then they will give other teams hope. They finish with Juve and Roma and if they need points those two weeks to survive, they will go down.

As you can see, all of these teams have real issues. Cagliari seems to have momentum and positivity, but a bad schedule and too many points to make up make it a tough task, Reggina has been better, but teams like Empoli and Parma are playing poorly. Livorno and Catania have played tougher scheduled making points harder to get, but they still have those extra points that other clubs would love to have.

Right now, I see Cagliari, Empoli, and Reggina going down, but with 10 weeks left, this can change weekly. I will continue to watch it but it is a tight race that fans of all six of these teams should watch. For every bit of optimism with each club, there is real reason to fear Serie B football.